Collaboratively written by Christy Kieffer, Taylor Ray, Kathryn Soter, Glen Williams, Peter Miller, Pete Hudson, and Michael Konrad
Last January, many of us watched the water in Richardson Bay climb higher than we’d ever seen — lines strained, ramps flexed, roads flooded, and we stood on our decks doing the math on just how much higher it could go. That storm turned out to be a record-setting event in Marin County.
This fall and early winter, the ingredients are lining up to do it again, but this time even higher. Why?
There are several forces converging:
- November 2026 through January 2027 brings the peak of an 18-year king tide cycle, with Thanksgiving and Christmas tides in the seven-foot range.
- We’re heading into an El Niño year, which tends to bring bigger, wetter storms. This year, they are calling it a Super El Niño, meaning sea levels may be higher than ever recorded along our coast. Note: The effects of El Niño are notoriously variable and difficult to predict with confidence.
- El Niño weather, if rigorous, could put a strain on stormwater drainage systems.
When combined, all of these could have quite an impact. If a seven-foot king tide lines up with a foot of wind-driven storm surge and large amounts of rain runoff, we could be looking at water levels that would test our lines, ramps, utility lines, and roadways in ways none of us have experienced before.
Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that, but it’s worth planning as though it might.
Note: A helpful planning tool is MarinFlood, a new app and website created by houseboat resident Jung Vu (Gate 6 ½), which tracks and records locally accurate tides. Or consult a common tide app like TideGraph.
(For more information on tides, Michael Konrad’s Understanding Local Sea Levels FT Oct 08, 2025 discusses the conditions that determine the size of storm surge as it applies to Waldo Point Harbor.)
Timing here adds another wrinkle: the November and December 2026 king tides fall over the holidays, when marina offices are closed, more neighbors may be traveling, and holiday guests unfamiliar with dock life will be staying with us.
Where The Pressure Points Are
It helps to think about this in terms of what happens when water rises that high, that fast. A few things are worth everyone’s attention:
- Gangways: Ramps have limits based on how they’re constructed and built to move.
- Utility connections: Electrical, water, sewer, gas, and communications lines all need enough slack to travel with the float. Not enough, and something gives.
- Lines and dock anchoring: As the geometry of boats shifts with the water, mooring lines can pull extremely tight — especially if wind is involved.
- Electrical equipment: Any electrical equipment near the water’s edge can be at risk of flooding.
- Road and emergency access: Gate 5 Road, Gate 6, the 101 on-ramp, and other low points can flood at extreme tide levels, which also means fire and ambulance access could be compromised right when needed most.
- Loose debris: High water combined with wind can set floats, furniture, and kayaks adrift, adding another hazard.
None of this means disaster is coming. It means these are the specific things worth walking around your home and your dock to check.
What You Can Do Now
- Check your connections: Make sure everything is secure and consider a mesh sleeve for exposed hookups.
- Inspect your home’s lines: If anything looks worn or undersized, now’s the time to upgrade it, given how tight lines can pull as water rises. Inspect your neighbor’s lines too.
- Talk to your neighbors about pumps, ropes, and hand-operated line winches (i.e., come-alongs): If your home takes on water, becomes detached from its mooring, or a ramp fails, these items will be important to help secure your floating home. Find out who already has them and consider chipping in on extras for the dock.
- Know your CERT reps: If you’ve completed CERT training, let your dock rep know — and if you haven’t, find out who on your dock has, so you know who to call.
- Know where your gas, electrical, and water shut-offs are: In an emergency, you don’t want to be fumbling in the dark for something you’ve never seen.
- Plan for your car and your guests: If you’re hosting holiday visitors, give them a quick rundown of dock life and where to move a car if water starts rising.
Need Emergency Equipment?
The Floating Homes Association (FHA) maintains a Disaster Response Trailer on Gate 6 Road stocked with emergency equipment that may be needed during extreme tides and storms. Your FHA Dock Rep and several FHA members have the lock combination to the trailer and can help you get access and needed equipment during an emergency. The trailer includes:
- A gas-powered 5,500-watt electric generator.
• Two high-capacity gasoline-powered water pumps and hoses.
• One electric high-capacity submersible pump with hoses.
• Tie lines for securing houseboats.
• Hand-operated line winches (come-alongs).
• Small hand tools (wrenches, screwdrivers, wire cutters, pliers, etc.).
• Pry bars, shovels, axes, and sledgehammers.
• Medical and first aid supplies.
• Mobility aids (wheelchairs, walkers, canes, and crutches).
Behind the scenes, we’re also raising these questions with the harbor masters:
- Who’s responsible for emergency shut-offs during holidays and after hours for electrical, gas, and water?
- Is there an on-call protocol for assessing safety — especially fire risk from water-damaged electrical boxes — before power is restored?
- Should extra dock lines be stocked in advance?
- And what backup plan exists for water, showers, and sewage access if power is out for an extended stretch?
We’ll share additional information and updates as those conversations develop, along with what resources the FHA has on hand and who to contact if you need them.
None of this is meant to scare you into paralysis — quite the contrary. It’s meant to help us do what this community always does well: look out for each other before we need to.